But that decoupling cuts both ways. Bitcoin's correlation with gold climbed to 0.57 and with silver to 0.63, meaning the asset now moves with metals more than tech. And metals answer to the same macro forces that could drag everything down if oil stays hot.

The Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode report frames a clear regime change. Bitcoin spent most of 2024 and early 2025 tracking the AI-fueled rally in large-cap tech. That link broke in Q2. The correlation swing arrived as the Federal Reserve prepares for its July 28-29 meeting, with Microsoft and Meta reporting earnings July 29 and Amazon following July 30.

New York Fed President John Williams recently tied elevated inflation directly to tariffs, Middle East-driven energy and commodity costs, and demand for goods and electricity driven by technology investment, specifically naming semiconductors and power transformers.

That accumulation setup is real. What matters for the third quarter is whether the macro environment lets it play out.

Bitcoin and gold sold off in tandem during Q2 because both answer to the same real-rate and liquidity forces. A firmer dollar and a hawkish Fed weighed on both assets simultaneously. That framing changes what an AI-stock selloff can do for Bitcoin now. Money leaving expensive technology shares helps Bitcoin only when it also pushes Treasury yields lower and weakens the dollar. An unwind driven by inflation, tariffs, or energy costs tightens the same channel that already dragged Bitcoin down alongside gold.

The US Energy Information Administration's July 7 base case projected Brent crude averaging $74 per barrel in the third quarter. By July 24, Brent stood near $96 after surging past $100 earlier in the month. That is above the $90 threshold where higher oil prices begin lifting yields and pressuring risk assets.

The 10-year Treasury yield touched 4.713% on July 24. Gold traded near $4,073 an ounce and silver near $58.77 on the same day, with higher-for-longer rate expectations capping both metals' advance through the year.

Bitcoin ETF flows provide the near-term confirmation signal. US spot funds posted net outflows through the first half of 2026 before that pace showed signs of exhaustion by June. The funds recorded seven straight days of net inflows through July 22, totaling nearly $1 billion. That streak ended July 23 when spot Bitcoin ETFs bled $225 million. A short run confirms demand is stabilizing, but whether that capital traces to an AI-to-crypto rotation will take more than a week of flows to prove.

New York Fed President John Williams has framed the inflation picture as a function of tariffs, Middle East energy costs, and AI-driven infrastructure demand pushing up input prices across semiconductors and power equipment. That framing matters because it ties inflation to structural forces rather than transitory shocks, suggesting the Fed has limited room to cut even if tech stocks sell off.