What happens when the dollar weakens into a packed catalyst week? Look at BTC.

Bitcoin trimmed Asian-session losses to trade near $96,800 Monday, outperforming a broad risk-off move that dragged Nasdaq 100 futures down 1.2% and sent the MSCI Asia Pacific Index to a three-week low. The divergence marks the fourth consecutive session where the largest cryptocurrency has decoupled from equity beta, a pattern traders attribute to shifting dollar dynamics ahead of Wednesday's FOMC decision and Friday's nonfarm payrolls report.

Nasdaq futures, by contrast, extended overnight losses without a comparable bounce. The NQ1! contract printed a session low of 19,850, pressured by renewed tariff rhetoric from the White House and a jump in 10-year Treasury yields to 4.38%.

The 30-day rolling correlation between bitcoin and the Nasdaq has compressed to 0.32, its lowest reading since January. Meanwhile, bitcoin's inverse correlation with the dollar index has strengthened to -0.68, suggesting the asset is increasingly trading as a dollar proxy rather than a risk asset.

ETF flow data supports the caution: U.S. spot bitcoin funds saw a net outflow of $87 million last week, the third consecutive week of redemptions. That suggests institutional allocators aren't yet chasing the dollar-hedge narrative aggressively.