On-chain metrics show no dramatic accumulation or distribution in the 48 hours ahead of the decision. Bitcoin's circulating supply remains at 20.06 million with no change in total supply since genesis. The 7-day decline of 3.50% suggests holders have been reducing exposure ahead of the event, yet the 24-hour bounce indicates some desks are buying the dip in anticipation of a hold.

The last time the Fed delivered a genuine surprise hike was July 2023, when a 25-basis-point increase caught futures markets leaning toward a pause. Bitcoin dropped 4% in the hour after the announcement but recovered within 48 hours as liquidity conditions stabilized. The current setup differs: Warsh's influence on the Fed's communication strategy means the surprise element itself may be the policy tool, not the rate change.

Market observers noted that Bitcoin's correlation with the S&P 500 has risen to 0.72 over the past month, meaning equity reaction to the FOMC will likely drag crypto in the same direction initially. The divergence would come in the hours after, as Bitcoin's 24/7 trading allows price discovery to continue while traditional markets are closed.

• Citadel's macro team, led by former Fed governor Kevin Warsh, positions for a surprise 25bp hike while consensus expects a hold

• BTC dominance at 56.5% and $1.28T market cap show capital concentration despite macro uncertainty