Standard Chartered Targets $100K Bitcoin as Treasury Buybacks Double

Market data shows standard Chartered analyst Geoff Kendrick has raised his bitcoin price target to $100,000, pointing to the US Treasury's decision to double its long-end bond buyback program as a key catalyst for improved liquidity conditions.

The Treasury announced it will increase purchases of long-duration Treasuries to $60 billion per month from the current $30 billion pace, a move designed to ease pressure on long-term yields and inject liquidity into financial markets. Kendrick argues this expansion directly benefits risk assets including bitcoin by reducing the discount rate applied to future cash flows.

Bitcoin traded at $68,677 at 14:00 UTC on August 18, representing a 5.80% gain over the previous 24 hours and an 8.10% increase over the past seven days according to CoinGecko data. The asset's market capitalization reached $1.378 trillion with 24-hour trading volume of $30.58 billion.

How Treasury Buybacks Influence Bitcoin

The mechanism operates through the risk-free rate channel. When the Treasury buys long-end bonds, yields on those securities fall. Lower long-term yields reduce the discount rate used to value assets with distant payoff profiles — including bitcoin, which investors often treat as a long-duration store of value. The Treasury's buyback program effectively functions as quantitative easing targeted at the long end of the curve, expanding the monetary base without touching short-term policy rates.

Kendrick's model assumes the buyback doubling persists through the current quarter and that the Federal Reserve maintains its current policy stance. Market data shows under those conditions, he estimates bitcoin could breach the $100,000 threshold before year-end. The projection relies on historical correlation between long-term Treasury yields and bitcoin returns during previous quantitative easing episodes.

Market Structure and Recent Price Action

The seven-day closing price series shows bitcoin rising steadily from $63,586.55 to $64,277.38, with the most recent session printing a high of $68,982 before settling near $68,529. Volume has remained elevated above $30 billion daily, suggesting institutional participation rather than retail-driven speculation.

Why This Matters Now

Market data shows the Treasury's announcement arrives as the Federal Reserve holds the federal funds rate at 5.25%-5.50% with inflation trending toward the 2% target. Market participants have priced in rate cuts beginning in September, but the Treasury's independent action provides liquidity support regardless of Fed timing. This dual-pillar approach — Treasury buybacks at the long end, potential Fed cuts at the short end — creates a favorable backdrop for assets sensitive to global liquidity conditions. Market data shows Bitcoin's circulating supply of 20.07 million coins remains fixed, meaning any sustained inflow of fiat liquidity must bid up the price. The asset's dominance at 57.2% of total crypto market capitalization indicates it continues to capture the majority of institutional flows entering the digital asset space.

What to Watch Next

Market data shows three variables will determine whether Kendrick's $100,000 target materializes: the Treasury's adherence to the doubled buyback pace, the Federal Reserve's September meeting outcome, and on-chain accumulation patterns among long-term holders. Glassnode data shows entities holding bitcoin for more than one year currently control approximately 14.5 million coins, a near-record level suggesting strong conviction among the existing holder base. Market data shows the next Treasury refunding announcement in November will confirm whether the $60 billion monthly pace extends into 2027. Any reduction would remove a pillar of the bullish case. Conversely, if the Fed delivers the widely expected 25 basis point cut in September while Treasury buybacks continue, the liquidity impulse could accelerate bitcoin's ascent toward the six-figure milestone.