The setup
Monero (XMR) trades at $381.06, -4.50% on the day, with an overall signal of 14/100 — strongly bearish. The 1H structure is lower lows / downtrend (-4.7%), the 4H is lower lows / downtrend, and the 7-day read is higher highs / uptrend. When the hourly and four-hour timeframes disagree, the higher timeframe usually wins; here they agree.
The indicator confluence
RSI sits at 32.0 (bearish), the MACD histogram is negative at -1.0269, and ADX reads 77.9 — a trending regime. EMA-12 is below EMA-26, and Bollinger width is 7.0% (normal). Relative volume is 0.37x the baseline (normal). Read together, these lean bearish.
Cross-asset read
Against bitcoin, XMR runs a beta of 0.48 and a 7-day relative strength of +7.1%. It is leading the market, not following it. Among the focus set, BTC (36/100, -0.47%), LEO (16/100, -3.60%), LINK (78/100, +3.87%) round out the context.
What confirms it and what kills it
The setup is a momentum / breakdown with an entry zone of $383.33 – $379.54, targeting $370.86 then $360.66. The level that invalidates the read is $394.74 — a close above that level means the structure has rolled over. Risk/reward reads 1:1.5 at high confidence. Research only — not financial advice.
Signal Dashboard
| Asset | Price | 24h | RSI | MACD | Trend (EMA) | ADX | ATR | BB width | Rel Vol | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XMR | $381.06 | -4.50% | 32.0 | -1.0269 | EMA12<EMA26 | 77.9 | 7.56 | 7.0% | 0.37x | 14/100 |
| BTC | $63,780.4 | -0.47% | 44.1 | +25.6382 | EMA12<EMA26 | 60.0 | 463.61 | 2.0% | 0.94x | 36/100 |
| LEO | $9.15 | -3.60% | 19.8 | -0.0203 | EMA12<EMA26 | 96.0 | 0.09 | 4.0% | 0.01x | 16/100 |
| LINK | $8.72 | +3.87% | 65.2 | +0.0047 | EMA12>EMA26 | 96.5 | 0.16 | 4.2% | 1.13x | 78/100 |
| DOGE | $0.0722 | +3.08% | 59.1 | +0.0001 | EMA12>EMA26 | 86.3 | 0.00 | 4.6% | 0.82x | 78/100 |
| WETH | $1,882.68 | +0.51% | 100.0 | +0.0000 | EMA12>EMA26 | 100.0 | 1.52 | 0.2% | 1.25x | 70/100 |
| USDT | $0.9991 | +0.00% | 35.4 | -0.0000 | EMA12<EMA26 | 55.6 | 0.00 | 0.0% | 30.88x | 35/100 |
| BNB | $613.20 | +2.13% | 66.6 | +0.5868 | EMA12>EMA26 | 91.6 | 5.47 | 2.6% | 0.20x | 76/100 |
Trading Signal Setup — XMR
| Setup type | Momentum / Breakdown |
| Entry zone | $383.33 – $379.54 |
| Target 1 | $370.86 |
| Target 2 | $360.66 |
| Invalidation | $394.74 |
| Risk / Reward | 1:1.5 |
| Confidence | High |
Levels are model-derived structure zones from ATR + pivots. Research only — not financial advice.
Key Levels — XMR
| Level | Value (estimate) | Distance from price |
|---|---|---|
| R2 (resistance) | $408.42 | +7.18% |
| R1 (resistance) | $394.74 | +3.59% |
| Pivot | $384.54 | +0.91% |
| S1 (support) | $370.86 | -2.68% |
| S2 (support) | $360.66 | -5.35% |
| Fib 0.236 | $379.98 | -0.28% |
| Fib 0.382 | $383.46 | +0.63% |
| Fib 0.5 | $386.28 | +1.37% |
| Fib 0.618 | $389.10 | +2.11% |