XRP balances held on centralized exchanges have fallen to their lowest level since early 2024, according to on-chain data tracked by CryptoQuant. The decline reflects a sustained wave of withdrawals that began in late October, with net outflows exceeding 120 million tokens over a three-week period. The drawdown has reduced aggregate exchange reserves to approximately 1.85 billion XRP, down from 2.1 billion at the start of the quarter.
The outflow pattern suggests holders are moving tokens into self-custody or cold storage rather than positioning for immediate sale. Analysts note that the withdrawal surge coincides with a period of relative price stability, with XRP trading in a narrow range between $0.50 and $0.55 throughout November. Typically, large exchange withdrawals precede volatility spikes, but the current calm has persisted despite the shrinking supply on trading platforms.
Reduced exchange inventory theoretically eases sell-side pressure by limiting the tokens readily available for market orders. However, the bullish case depends on whether spot demand can absorb the thinner order books without triggering sharp price swings. Order book depth on major venues like Binance and Coinbase has thinned noticeably in the past two weeks, with bid-side liquidity down roughly 18% from October averages.
Trading volume has not kept pace with the reserve decline. Twenty-four-hour spot volume across top exchanges averaged $850 million last week, compared to $1.2 billion during the same period last month. The divergence raises questions about whether the withdrawal trend reflects genuine accumulation or simply a shift in custody preferences amid broader market uncertainty.
Derivatives data offers a mixed signal. Open interest on XRP perpetual futures has held steady near $500 million, while funding rates have flipped slightly positive after weeks in negative territory. The shift suggests leveraged traders are no longer aggressively shorting, but the lack of a strong long bias indicates cautious sentiment rather than conviction.