The XRP-specific catalyst that could break this pattern is the Ripple ETF filing working through the SEC. Multiple asset managers have filed for a spot XRP ETF, and while no approval is imminent, the filings anchor institutional interest.

The key level for institutional desks is $1.00. A break below that round number would trigger stop-loss cascades and accelerate selling into thin summer liquidity. XRP's $1.31 billion in daily volume, while substantial, is not enough to absorb a coordinated sell order in the current macro climate.

XRP is caught between macro gravity and structural optionality from the ETF filing. For today, the Fed takes precedence. The tape says sellers are in control. The filing calendar says wait for the catalyst window.

• XRP fell 2.5% on the day and 8.3% on the week to $1.061, erasing $6 billion in market value.

• Total crypto market cap dropped 1.67% to $2.27 trillion as the FOMC began its July meeting.