Bill Miller IV says he has never been more bullish on Bitcoin. The Miller Value Partners chief made the case in an interview with Bitcoin Magazine.
His reason is not a chart pattern. It's Washington's budget. He argues that worsening deficits leave Bitcoin more undervalued today than at the last cycle high.
That's a big claim. So it's worth unpacking what he means and what would prove him right or wrong.
Miller ties the call to bigger deficits, not bigger hype
Governments running deficits spend more cash than they take in, and they cover the gap by borrowing. Miller's point, as described by Bitcoin Magazine, is that this habit keeps getting worse.
And worse matters for Bitcoin. Investors who worry about borrowing and money creation often look for assets outside government control.
Bitcoin fits that search because no central bank can print more of it. Miller is betting that contrast gets harder for markets to ignore.
Fixed supply meets rising government spending
Bitcoin has a set issuance schedule that anyone can check. Dollars do not. New Treasury borrowing can keep coming as long as Congress allows it.
So the trade is pretty simple in his framing. One side grows its supply year after year. The other side does not.
That does not mean the price moves in a straight line. It means Miller sees the long-term math favoring the asset with a cap. Deficits are the engine of that view.
A relative bet against the last peak
Saying Bitcoin is more undervalued now than at the peak is specific. He is not just saying it will go up. He is saying today's price offers a better deal than the top of the last cycle did.
That kind of call rests on fundamentals improving while price lags. In his telling, the fiscal picture has gotten uglier, so Bitcoin's use case has gotten stronger.
But markets do not always pay for better fundamentals right away. Risk appetite, rates, and forced selling can hold price down for months. Miller is looking past that noise.
What has to happen next is plain
Watch two things side by side. First, the monthly federal deficit reports show whether the fiscal trend keeps worsening. Second, Bitcoin's price shows whether it reclaims its prior cycle high.
If deficits widen and Bitcoin stays weak, Miller's thesis is still waiting on the market. If deficits widen and Bitcoin firms up, his timing looks early but right.