TD Cowen is telling clients that Smarter Web could climb 90% after the bitcoin treasury firm proposed a MORE preferred share IPO. The call landed on the same day that Strive hit a $3 billion market cap with shares at $27.70, which shows investors are still paying up for companies that hold bitcoin on their balance sheets.
The MORE preferred IPO is a new class of shares that would sit above common stock in the payout order. That structure matters because it lets the company raise capital without diluting the common holders the way a straight equity raise would. TD Cowen thinks that structure, layered onto a growing bitcoin reserve, is what unlocks the upside.
But the macro tape is working against the sector. Bitcoin ETFs just lost $463 million in outflows as the Fed's rate path put BTC at risk of breaking below $75,000. That outflow number is real money leaving the wrappers that track the spot price, and it means the marginal buyer stepped back last week.
On the corporate side, Revolut disclosed that customer records were exposed in a breach, with attackers demanding 10,000 BTC. The breach hit a company that serves millions of retail customers, and the ransom demand in bitcoin is a reminder that crypto holdings at fintech firms are a real attack surface.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin Suisse is cutting up to half of its Swiss jobs and shifting work overseas, which tells you cost pressure is hitting the service providers, not just the traders.
Analysts at one desk flagged the Japanese yen and US yields as the biggest near-term risk to bitcoin. When the yen weakens and US yields rise, capital tends to move out of risk assets like BTC and back into dollar-denominated bonds.
That same desk noted that bitcoin held steady while tech stocks slid on AI safety concerns, which means BTC is tracking the broader risk-off move but has not broken its range yet.
The question for Smarter Web is whether the MORE IPO can price before the macro window closes. Strive's $3 billion valuation shows the appetite is there, but the ETF outflows and the yen-yield squeeze are the two forces that could cap how high the sector runs this quarter.
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